A Wisconsin Congressional Primer
Flipping the US legislature in this year’s midterms would be a huge blow to the ambitions of the fascists who have gained control of the US government. We are neither so naive as to believe that winning elections is all we need, nor so cynical as to believe they mean nothing to Trump’s control. The Trump regime is engaged in some form of competitive authoritarianism. Even if they intend to hold power through force, a strong rebuke from voters in the 2026 midterm impacts their prospects for doing so.
The 2026 Congressional primaries also matter. Trump will find reversing the kind of close elections and tight legislative margins that centrist strategies tend to yield much easier than holding power against a strong blue wave. Also, riled up activist fighters and socialist candidates will be harder to push around than establishment centrists who agree with fascists that capitalism and elite control should define our society.
Wisconsin doesn’t have a US Senate race this year, so our part to play is only in eight Congressional Districts. These districts are heavily gerrymandered. As we described recently, the Supreme Court of Wisconsin (SCOWI) refused to repair them, despite Wisconsin voters trying to restore democracy by electing liberal justices with huge margins. Those justices are only now hearing cases on the maps, on a ridiculously tight timeline. This is an infuriating example of fancy liberals enabling fascism by slow-walking vital repairs.
Today we’re going to summarize the races, by district, assuming the current maps will be used in November. Election clerks set an April deadline for SCOWI to get their shit together, so if that changes and we get better maps, we’ll know in April. Even if we’re stuck with the current maps, Republicans are losing by large margins in red districts, so anything is possible!
It is very early in the year and there are dozens of candidates between the 8 races, so for now we’re just giving first-glimpse looks. We hope to get more in-depth later.
Congressional District 1
The District: Southeastern corner of the state, went Republican with 54% last cycle. This is the second-most competitive district in this election.
The incumbent: Republican Bryan Steil. He first won this seat in 2018 when Paul Ryan moved on. Based on current financial reports, Steil has $4.9 million cash on hand. Constituents chased him out of his town halls last year. Will the same happen at campaign events? Stay tuned!
Leading Challenger: At a glance, registered nurse and union organizer Mitchell Berman (raised $109,000) looks like the most serious challenger. He seems to be raising funds, and more importantly has a promising left populist platform!
Other Players: There’s also a left populist independent in the race named Adam Follner. By running as an independent, he won’t be in the primary, but could turn some Steil voters who hate his elite ties and authoritarian complicity but culturally, won’t ever vote Democrat. Follner could also take away from a Democratic candidate, helping Steil win. If he gets significant votes, they’ll probably come from doing some of both. If we had ranked choice voting campaigns like Follner’s would be more meaningful and less potentially hazardous.
Old news Randy Bryce (raised $40,000) is also running a working class populist race, but he lost pretty spectacularly to Steil in 2018. He also lost a 2014 State Senate race by 23% and a State Assembly race in 2012.
Only two of the remaining four Democrats seem to actually have any campaign going. Miguel Aranda, a Whitewater school board, looks very conservative for a Democrat. Travis Beckius is a supply chain manager running as a “midwest moderate Democrat”. There’s also a Republican challenger who looks like some kind of internet-pilled conspiracist.
Congressional District 2
The District: Covers central southern Wisconsin, and went 70.1% Democrat last cycle. The victor, Mark Pocan is publicly pleading with SCOWI to redraw maps and give voters competitive districts.
The Incumbent: Pocan first won this seat in 2012. He has $1.03 million cash on hand, is an active member of the progressive caucus, and probably the most vocal member of Wisconsin’s national delegation.
Challenger: Republican Erik Olsen has spent a couple thousand dollars. He lost to Pocan by over 40 points last cycle, and even more the cycle before that. No one else appears to be in the race.
Congressional District 3
The District: In western and central Wisconsin, CD3 is definitely the most competitive district, going Republican with only 51.4% last cycle.
The Incumbent: Derrick Van Orden has already raised almost $4.35 million, and spent close to half of it. He is a bombastic troll, and ineffective goof who flipped the seat in 2022 when Democrat Ron Kind left it open.
Leading Challengers: Democrat Rebecca Cooke ran for CD3 and lost twice already, but she announced very early and has been raising funds ($4.07 million). She’s also been winning endorsements, bafflingly including Bernie Sanders’ despite Cooke being a pro-business “blue dog” candidate. Van Orden was not a serious person in 2022 or 2024, so it’s strange seeing Democrats line up behind someone who could not beat him. Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge is running a more promising populist campaign, but has an uphill primary battle due to the national institutional support behind Cooke.
Other Players: Rodney Rave, a Ho-Chunk nation member and former legislator has a small presence in the race. Laura Benjamin, an activist who staged a sit-in at Van Orden’s office as part of her campaign was running until she ran out of money and withdrew last summer. There are also a couple of independents running, but neither have much presence, and will likely be dismissed as spoilers by voters on both sides in this close race
Congressional District 4
The District: Covering Milwaukee and some suburbs, CD4 is drawn to pack Democratic voters into one District. It went 74% blue in 2024.
The Incumbent: Gwen Moore first won this district way back in 2004, and hasn’t had a primary challenger since 2018. She raised $680,000 last year, and spent almost all of it. Moore has done some good in office, but refuses to stop sending bombs to kill Palestinians despite much targeted pressure.
Leading Challenger: Unfortunately, no one seems willing or able to seriously challenge Moore, so far.
Other Players: Republican challenger Purmina Nath has run and lost against Moore and for other offices, a lot. Outsider Democrat, Asher Smale has a (kinda fun) website.
Congressional District 5
The District: CD5 covers the suburbs north and west of Milwaukee. It went 64.4% Republican last cycle. CD5 is between the two gerrymandered Democratic districts, and MAGA is losing the suburbs, so new maps seem likely to make this district more competitive.
The Incumbent: Republican Scott Fitzgerald was first elected in 2020, replacing long serving Republican incumbent Jim Sensenbrenner. Fitzgerald raised over $735,000 last year, and has $1.2 million cash on hand.
Leading Challenger: So far, proud union progressive Democrat Andy Beck has a little more money in the race than paramedic Ben Steinhoff who is running on “togetherness”. Neither are anywhere near Fitzgerald’s warchest. According to ballotpedia, they both ran against Fitzgerald in 2024, but Beck withdrew or was disqualified.
Congressional District 6
The District: East-Central Wisconsin, which went 61.2% Republican in 2024.
The Incumbent: Republican Glenn Grothman first won CD6 in 2014, replacing long-standing Republican incumbent Tom Petri. Grothman has a long penchant for race baiting. He raised half a million, and had $644,000 cash on hand last year.
Leading Challengers: There are a lot of people in this race. In terms of funding, Democrat Aaron Wojcichowski is leading (with $36,000 raised), though he seems to be largely self-financing. He’s a former member of Oshkosh City Council who also ran for state senate in 2020, under a very red-leaning map. Another Democrat in what looks like a more moderate lane, Brad Smith also has a significant amount (of his own) money in the race.
Other Players: Firefighter and healthcare worker Mike Thurow is running as an independent on an economic populist platform similar to Dan Osbourne or Graham Platner. Unless we get new maps, CD6 is a longer shot than CD1 for Democrats, so, rather than just spoiling the two big parties, Thurow might actually be Wisconsin’s best bet to remove Grothman from office. There are six more Democratic candidates in this race, ranging from Minister and Army Vet John Macho to geologist farmer Amanda Bell to painter Mike Heidenreich to bar tender Joey Marschall to punk-haired activist Kelly Brown.
CD6 might not be very competitive, but it will be interesting!
Congressional District 7
The District: Northwestern Wisconsin this is an open seat, currently held by Tom Tiffany since 2020, but he is running for governor. Last election, Tiffany won with 63.6% of the vote.
Democratic Candidates: Fred Clark has a significant money lead ($163,000 raised) among Democrats, but a pretty bland platform. Technology businessman Chris Armstrong’s campaign ad starts with his philosophy: “don’t be a dick” and features him at protest marches and sipping Redbull by a river. Meanwhile, attorney Ginger Murray insists she is not a fighter.
Republican Candidates: Attorney Paul Wassgren has the most money in the race ($1.5 million). His website doesn’t work, but his Facebook profile picture is him smiling like a goon beside Trump in a hi-vis vest. MAGA candidate Jessi Ebben has a lot of endorsements from southern politicians and local law enforcement. Michael Alfonso is all about family, Sean Duffy is father-in-law. He’s also heavily leaning on the story of his parents fleeing from Fidel Castro’s Cuba. Republicans, they’re still weird. State Representatives Chanz Green and Duke Tucker and state Senator Duey Stroebel have also expressed interest in the race.
Congressional District 8
The District: Northeastern Wisconsin, Republicans won with 57.3% in 2024, making it the 3rd most competitive district in our gerrymandered state.
The Incumbent: Republican Tony Wied won a special election in 2024 after Representative Mike Gallagher had enough death threats and fake SWAT calls from Trump’s MAGA base to stepped down. Wied is a big Trump fan, and MAGA loves him, so he doesn’t have those worries. Instead, he was too scared of criticism from his regular constituents to host public events, in response, protesters went to his house. Wied raised $675,000 and had $353,000 on hand last year.
Leading Challengers: Financial advisor Mark Scheffler has $30,000 of his own money in the race and a platform so dull that his website includes a “fun stuff” section which is just 12 short video excerpts of him dishing empty pablum into a fancy-looking microphone. Maybe I’m getting bored at the end of this list. Fortunately, there’s a candidate in CD8 I’m actually excited to tell readers about. Katrina DeVille is a transwoman, musician, and gun enthusiast. DeVille’s policy page is a little meandering and non-specific, but her social media is full of rad!
Other players: Army vet and former Green Bay school board member Rick Crosson has raised a few actual donations, and is running on common sense policies.
